NAEP FORECASTING
A recent study by the Department's National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) attempts to relate student achievement on the twelfth-grade National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in math in terms of postsecondary educational outcomes. For example, of the seniors who scored below NAEP's "Basic" level, 46% did not go on to higher education and only 18% went on to receive a bachelor's degree. In contrast, of the seniors who scored at NAEP's "Basic" level, 82% went on to college (53% to a four-year institution) and 50% went on to receive a bachelor's degree. Moreover, of the seniors who scored at NAEP's "Proficient" level, most students (95%) went on to college (84% to a four-year institution) and 79% went on to receive a bachelor's degree. And, of the seniors who scored at NAEP's "Advanced" level, nearly all students (98%) went on to college (94% to a four-year institution) and 91% went on to receive a bachelor's degree. On their own, the study's findings are intuitive. Yet, in light of an earlier NCES study (http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2007482), which found that most state fourth- and eighth-grade proficiency standards fall at or below NAEP's "Basic" range, they do suggest the need to raise expectations to improve students' odds in higher education. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE GO TO http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2007328.

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